The British government has confirmed it is abandoning its "one in, one out" migration pilot with France, ending an arrangement that was intended to deter small boat crossings across the English Channel. The scheme, which had been running for a little over a year, allowed the UK to send back some migrants who arrived by small boat while agreeing to accept an equivalent number of people from France who were deemed to have a legitimate claim to enter Britain.
Only about 1,500 people were returned to France under the arrangement, a figure that falls far short of the scale ministers had hoped to achieve and that critics argue undermined the pilot's deterrent value from the outset. The BBC understands that the government would have preferred to keep the scheme running, but concluded that it had failed to deliver at the volume required to justify its continuation.
A Home Office spokesperson framed the decision as a pragmatic step rather than an outright failure, saying that "lessons learned" from the pilot would be channelled into broader efforts to remove migrants who have no legal right to remain in the UK. The spokesperson confirmed that the agreement is "no longer processing new cases," while stressing that removal flights will continue in the coming weeks.
In its formal statement, the Home Office said the pilot involving the removal of asylum seekers in exchange for an equal number of legal migrants had come to an end. It added that the government would draw on the experience gained to "accelerate efforts" to return small boat migrants who do not have permission to stay. Officials also insisted that cooperation with France on tackling unauthorised Channel crossings would continue, pointing to what they described as "real progress" and noting that arrival numbers are significantly lower than at the same point last year.
The French government confirmed that discussions about winding down the arrangement are under way. The French Interior Ministry told the BBC that it is currently negotiating the terms of its exit from the agreement with British counterparts, indicating that the two sides are still working through the practical details of how the pilot will be formally concluded.
The collapse of the scheme comes after Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood publicly acknowledged earlier this month that it had "not been without its challenges." Addressing MPs, she conceded that the numbers involved remained "relatively small" and that scaling up removals to France on a large weekly basis had proven operationally difficult. Her comments signalled that the government was already aware of the pilot's limitations well before this week's announcement.
At the same time, Mahmood noted that the United Nations and other agencies had reported that some migrants were choosing not to board small boats because they believed they might be accepted under the "one in, one out" framework. That argument suggested the scheme carried at least some deterrent effect, even if the volume of returns never reached the level ministers had envisaged.
The pilot was also expensive. Figures previously disclosed indicated that the scheme cost around £56,000 per person returned to France, a price tag that fuelled criticism from opposition politicians and immigration campaigners who questioned whether the arrangement offered value for money. When set against the 1,500 or so individuals actually removed, the total cost of the programme becomes a central plank of the case against continuing it.
The decision to scrap the pilot underscores the broader difficulty facing successive UK governments in addressing irregular migration across the Channel. Small boat crossings have become the most common method by which people are detected entering the UK illegally since 2020, and the route remains politically charged. Nearly all those who arrive by small boat claim asylum, meaning that under international law they are permitted to remain in the country while their applications are assessed.
The numbers paint a nuanced picture. Between 1 January and 27 September 2026, a total of 19,135 people crossed the Channel in small boats, a decline of 42% compared with the same period in 2025, when 32,188 people made the journey. Overall annual figures show 41,472 arrivals in 2025, up from 36,816 in 2024, but well below the 45,755 recorded in 2022 at the height of the post-pandemic surge.
Small boat arrivals accounted for roughly 40% of asylum applications between July 2025 and June 2026. Boats arriving during the year to 27 September 2026 carried an average of 67 people, more than double the average recorded in 2021. Experts say this overcrowding makes crossings considerably riskier, and the United Nations estimated that at least 84 people died attempting to cross the Channel in 2024. For context, small boat arrivals represent only about 5% of total immigration into the UK between January and December 2025.
The demographic profile of those arriving is relatively concentrated. Eritreans made up 18% of all small boat arrivals between July 2025 and June 2026, the largest single national group. Sudanese nationals accounted for 4,191 arrivals, followed by Afghans at 4,042, Somalis at 3,901 and Iranians at 3,657. In addition, at least 2,335 people who arrived by small boat during 2025 were identified as potential victims of human trafficking or modern slavery, according to Home Office data.
Beyond the small boat route, another 4,712 people were detected entering the UK without permission between July 2025 and June 2026 through other means, including hiding in vehicles, travelling on ferries or arriving through airports, a fall of 17% year on year. The total number of people living in the UK illegally after entering legally, for example on work or study visas and then overstaying, is not known, and remains one of the least quantified dimensions of the immigration system.
The government has repeatedly pledged to "smash the gangs" responsible for organising crossings, arguing that dismantling criminal networks is the most effective long-term way to reduce the numbers making the journey. Whether the end of the French pilot strengthens or weakens that strategy remains an open question, particularly given the loss of a mechanism that some officials believed was discouraging at least some potential arrivals from attempting the crossing.
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